Firstly the ONS “discovered” it had under-estimated the rate of growth and size of the UK economy – by a full 2%; actually, that is the enormous sum of some £45,000 million – yes “just” £45,000 million under-estimated by forecasters. This means we know now that the UK economy rebounded at a faster rate than France, Germany, Italy etc. in Europe and behind only the USA and Canada in the G7. We have to ask – if the Bank of England had been aware of the true pace of uplift in UK economic activity would it have pumped so much money into the economy – and if not - we guess interest rates may not have needed to rise so far so fast. In contrast downgraded forecasts put the Euro-Zone into recession by year end as the German economy teeters on the verge of recession with economic activity just 0.2% above its pre-Covid level of 4 years ago.
And secondly - UK economic growth rates for the first quarter 2023 have been upgraded - again – and the ONS now finds UK economic activity grew by an impressive 4.3% last year.
And thirdly Inflation is falling - whilst forecasters inked in a rise in inflation last month – the outcome - a further decline. Even better - the core rate of inflation fell from 6.9% to 6.2%.
Incidentally, Treasury forecasts see the UK inflation rate down to 2.4% by end-2024. The revisions suggest the UK is weathering external economic and inflationary pressures better than the scribblers “forecast” earlier this year.
A big disappointment for Labour and its anti-patriotic obsession with talking down the UK - and well done the Conservative Government for getting the job done.
